Conflict, the global slowdown, adverse weather conditions and the impact of the Iraq War all took their toll on the economies of sub-Saharan Africa in 2002 and into 2003. Meanwhile, the process of regional economic integration was accompanied by conflict resolution initiatives intended to prevent yet more genocide and instability in Africa.

Conflict resolution working

Positive political developments took place in the Great Lakes region of central Africa, which, after years of tribal warfare, edged its way towards peace and stability in 2002 and 2003. In late 2002, a peace agreement signed by civilian groups and warring factions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) conflict marked the beginning of the end of one of Africa’s bloodiest wars. The threat posed by irregulars and groups outside the peace agreement persists, but international intervention in April 2003 and African mediation appear to have pulled the DRC away from war.
Rwanda showed signs of greater stability, with overwhelming support for a democratic constitution in a referendum held in May 2003. The new constitution pledges to end the Hutu-Tutsi tribal rivalries, which were behind the genocide of the 1990s, by preventing one-party dominance of the political system and banning incitement to racial hatred.

In Burundi, the peace process was threatened by an upsurge of violence in mid-2003. The country’s transitional government had intended to give fair representation to both Hutus and Tutsis. But when Domitien Ndayizeye, a Hutu, became president in April 2003, Tutsi extremists launched an attack on the capital, Bujumbura. Conflict abated in July, but there were fears that the failure of a number of rebel groups to agree to a permanent ceasefire and demobilisation under the 2000 Arusha Peace Accord would undermine Burundi’s transition to democratic governance. With political parties organised along tribal lines, tensions are likely to build as the country prepares for elections in 2004.

In East Africa, Sudan made tentative steps towards peace, with the signing of the Machakos Protocol. The accord, brokered by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (Igad) – an organisation launched in 1993 by the governments of Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Uganda and Eritrea – met some of the demands of the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), which is campaigning for succession for the south. However, the deal threatens to unravel as both sides are unable to compromise on the issue of SPLA representation in government and the distribution of oil revenues, which are largely from the south.

In West Africa, the outbreak of civil war in Côte d’Ivoire threatened to plunge the region into the kind of chaotic, bloody conflict seen in Sierra Leone in the 1990s. The conflict began in September 2002 as a localised mutiny by Muslim soldiers, but spread due to widespread Muslim dissatisfaction with the increasingly xenophobic and anti-Muslim rhetoric and policies of President Laurent Gbagbo. By the end of the year, Côte d’Ivoire was split between the Christian south and Muslim north, with allegations that neighbouring states, such as Liberia and Burkina Faso, were backing rebel groups. The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), with the support of the country’s former colonial ruler, France, and the UN, was quick to act, by deploying troops to create a buffer zone between warring groups and encouraging ceasefire talks. In January 2003, rebel groups and the government signed the Linas-Marcoussis Agreement in Paris, which included a government of national reconciliation. By mid-2003, the rebels had joined the transitional government, although they had not laid down their arms.

The smooth conflict resolution initiative in Côte d’Ivoire was repeated in Liberia, where rebel groups had made large gains. By mid-2003, the rebels were on the outskirts of the capital Monrovia and Liberia’s President Charles Taylor’s grip on power was slipping. With US warships moored just off the Liberian coast, African leaders felt they had more authority over the situation. In August 2003, Ecowas managed to negotiate an agreement with the Liberian government to allow Ecowas peace-keepers into Monrovia, along with Taylor’s resignation as president and exile to Nigeria. On 14 October, Gyude Bryant was sworn in as Liberia’s new president. 

Food means growth

The strength of economic growth across Africa will depend on climatic conditions and post-conflict recovery, factors which have a large influence on the performance of key agricultural sectors. Severe flooding hit Kenya, Senegal and Algeria, while drought affected large parts of Southern and East Africa as well as the Sahel. This had a substantial impact on growth levels in these countries.
In Southern Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Swaziland reported poor harvests in the first half of 2003, leaving large parts of the population dependent on food imports. Angola and the DRC continued to be affected by food supply problems and internal displacement related to years of drought and conflict, although rehabilitation and humanitarian assistance are helping recovery.

In East Africa, the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) warned that northern Uganda, Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia faced drought-induced famine in 2003. In Sudan, a commitment under the July 2002 Machakos Protocol had allowed humanitarian agencies into conflict zones for the first time, easing the food crisis in these areas.

In the arid Sahel region, the Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal and Cape Verde were badly affected by the third successive year of drought. Meanwhile, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea-Bissau and Niger were facing what the WFP called a ‘silent emergency’ in 2003 – although they have not experienced adverse weather conditions or civil unrest, they suffer high levels of malnutrition.

Falling prices

The World Bank’s non-energy commodity price index for low- and middle-income countries rose by 7.5 per cent in the first half of 2003 compared to 2002, with growth in the metals and minerals index at 7.7 per cent, agriculture at 7.6 per cent and timber at 5.9 per cent. The prices of exported agricultural commodities rose faster than food prices, while the fertiliser price index rose by just 2.4 per cent. Consequently, international prices and the cost of inputs are in favour of African farmers, although this does not guarantee increased output.
The end of hostilities in Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, saw a sharp decline in cocoa prices, which fell from an average of US$214 per kg in the first quarter of 2003 to US$163 by September. This will have a negative impact on the agricultural sectors of some African countries, particularly Ghana which had been investing in cocoa production in order to capitalise on the rise in prices during the Ivorian conflict. Coffee and tea continued to experience a fall in prices in 2002 and the first half of 2003 due to oversupply and high stocks. Meanwhile, gold prices surged on the back of heightened concerns over conflict in the Middle East and the international economic situation, rising by 13 per cent in the first half of 2003 compared to the 2002 average. This will give a significant boost to African gold producers, such as South Africa, Ghana and Mali.

Outlook

The success of various peace initiatives in 2002 and 2003 did not lead to immediate economic benefits. The 2003 edition of the Economic Report on Africa, published by the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) in July 2003, forecast growth of just 3.3 per cent in 2003, compared to 3.2 per cent growth in 2002 and 4.3 per cent in 2001.
Conflict resolution will undoubtedly help alleviate some of the stresses placed on a number of African countries. As always, Africa’s rate of growth will be influenced by the world prices of primary commodities – particularly coffee, tea, cotton, oil and gold – and climatic conditions; factors which are often hard to predict.